Author Archives: Shelly Berryhill
The Evolution of AI: From ANI to AGI and Beyond
AI
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a topic of fascination, hope, and concern for decades. As we progress in this field, it’s crucial to understand the different types of AI and their potential implications for our future. In this post, we’ll explore Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), including predictions about when each might be achieved.
Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
Artificial Narrow Intelligence, also known as Weak AI, refers to AI systems designed and trained for a specific task. ANI is what we currently have and use in our daily lives.
Examples:
- Virtual assistants like Siri or Alexa
- Recommendation systems on platforms like Netflix or Amazon
- Image recognition software
Current Status: ANI is already here and continually improving.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Artificial General Intelligence, or Strong AI, refers to a hypothetical AI that can understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to solve any problem, much like a human can.
Characteristics:
- Ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly
- Learn and adapt to new situations without specific training
Predictions: Estimates for when we might achieve AGI vary widely:
- Ray Kurzweil, futurist and Google engineer, predicts AGI by 2029 [1].
- A survey of AI experts at the 2022 Conference on AI Safety predicted a 50% chance of AGI by 2061 [2].
- Some experts, like Rodney Brooks, believe AGI is much further away, possibly centuries [3].
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
Artificial Superintelligence refers to an AI system that surpasses human intelligence and capabilities in virtually every field.
Characteristics:
- Far superior problem-solving and creative abilities compared to humans
- Potential for exponential self-improvement
Predictions: Estimates for ASI are even more speculative than those for AGI:
- Nick Bostrom suggests that if AGI is achieved, ASI could follow within days or years [4].
- Ray Kurzweil predicts the singularity (which could lead to ASI) by 2045 [1].
- Sam Altman (CEO of Open.ai) says “in a few thousand days”!
- Many experts argue that predicting ASI is premature without first achieving AGI.
Conclusion
The journey from ANI to AGI and potentially to ASI represents a profound transformation in artificial intelligence. While ANI is already a part of our daily lives, the timelines for AGI and ASI remain highly uncertain and debated. As we continue to advance in AI research and development, it’s crucial to consider both the potential benefits and risks associated with these powerful technologies.
Remember, predictions in this field are notoriously difficult, and many experts caution against overconfidence in specific timelines. The development of AGI and ASI, if they occur, will likely be gradual processes rather than sudden breakthroughs.
Sources:
[1] Kurzweil, R. (2005). The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Viking.
[2] Zhang, B., Anderljung, M., Kahn, L., Dreksler, N., Horowitz, M., & Dafoe, A. (2022). Ethics and governance of artificial intelligence: Evidence from a survey of machine learning researchers. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 71, 591-666.
[3] Brooks, R. (2017, September 7). The Seven Deadly Sins of AI Predictions. MIT Technology Review.
[4] Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.
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Paving the Way to a Better Future: Why Our Community Needs T-SPLOST
T-Splost
As our community approaches the upcoming November referendum on the Transportation Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax (T-SPLOST), it’s crucial that we understand the significant impact this measure could have on our daily lives and the future of our infrastructure.
The Current State of Affairs
Currently, our city receives a modest annual allocation of approximately $100,000 for street improvements. While this funding allows us to resurface about 3 to 4 short roads per year, it falls drastically short of addressing our community’s growing infrastructure needs.
To put this into perspective, consider Southern Hills Subdivision. There’s a single road in this area that desperately needs resurfacing, with an estimated cost of over $300,000. Under our current budget constraints, addressing this one road alone could consume our entire street improvement budget for three years, leaving countless other roads in disrepair.
The T-SPLOST Difference
The proposed T-SPLOST would be a game-changer for our community. If passed, our city would receive nearly $1 million annually for road improvements. This tenfold increase in funding would allow us to pave and repair many more roads each year than we currently can.
Imagine the transformation:
- Instead of 3-4 short roads per year, we could improve many roads annually.
- Projects like the Southern Hills Subdivision road could be completed in a single year, with funds left over for other critical improvements.
- We could address our backlog of road repairs more quickly, enhancing safety and quality of life for all residents.
A Fair Approach to Funding
One of the most compelling aspects of T-SPLOST is its fairness. Unlike property taxes that place the burden solely on local homeowners and businesses, a sales tax is shared by everyone who makes purchases in our community – including visitors and tourists. This means that those who use our roads, even temporarily, contribute to their maintenance and improvement.
Investing in Our Future
Good infrastructure is the backbone of a thriving community. Well-maintained roads:
- Improve safety for drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians
- Enhance property values across the city
- Attract new businesses and residents
- Reduce vehicle maintenance costs for all drivers
The Time to Act is Now
The choice before us is clear. We can continue with the status quo, stretching our limited resources and watching our infrastructure slowly deteriorate, or we can invest in a brighter future for our community.
By voting YES on the T-SPLOST referendum, we have the power to transform our city’s infrastructure, creating safer, smoother, and more reliable roads for everyone. This is not just about paving streets; it’s about paving the way for a more prosperous and vibrant community.
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Pad Ready Site is underway at the Industrial Park
As a city commissioner, I’m excited to share with you an important initiative underway in Hawkinsville—the development of a PAD READY site at our Industrial Park. You might be wondering, what exactly is a pad-ready site, and why is it such a big deal for our community?
A pad-ready site is a piece of land that has been fully prepared for immediate development. This means the site is already graded and leveled, with utilities like water, sewer, electricity, and sometimes even broadband, already installed. Environmental studies and permitting are also taken care of, so when a business or industry comes in, they can start construction without delays. This speeds up the process of bringing new jobs and opportunities to Hawkinsville.
By developing a pad-ready site at our Industrial Park, we are making Hawkinsville more attractive to businesses looking to relocate or expand. These companies don’t want to wait months or years to get a site ready—they want to hit the ground running. With a pad-ready site, we can offer them exactly that: a fast-track to getting their operations up and running, which means quicker job creation and a boost to our local economy.
This project is a significant investment in the future of Hawkinsville. It positions us to be more competitive in attracting businesses and ensures that our city is ready to grow and prosper. We’re excited about the opportunities this brings and look forward to sharing more updates as the site develops.
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Podcast on Tax Digest Appeal
Check out this incredible AI generated podcast based on my post about how to go about appealing your assessment value. AI is pretty incredible.
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The Forge
What an incredible movie! The Kendrick brothers always deliver, and “The Forge” is no exception. It’s not just a film, but an emotional and spiritual journey that deeply moves the heart and uplifts the spirit. As a Christian film, it shines with its impactful storytelling, powerful messages, and strong emphasis on faith. From the start, the film grips you with its captivating narrative, focusing on themes like redemption, perseverance, and the transformative power of faith. The core message of discipleship stands out, an area where many churches today could grow. But the film also explores so much more—redemption, struggles, faith, and prayer are all beautifully woven into the story. We’ve watched it twice and highly recommend it to anyone. You won’t be disappointed!
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When to Appeal your Property Taxes
As mentioned in a previous post, Pulaski County has re-assessed all property in Pulaski County. Once you receive the notice with your new property value assessment, you have 45 days to appeal that valuation. I have heard several people say, “I am going to wait and see what my actual taxes are first.” In other words, they want to wait until the governmental entities set their millage rates. This won’t work. The governments can’t set their millage rates until the digest is VERIFIED by the Tax Commissioner and he can’t do that until all appeals are done. So forget the “estimated tax” information, just concentrate on the ASSESSED VALUE of your property. If you feel it is too high, then head on down to the Tax Assessors’ office and they will help you file an appeal on that valuation. They are nice folks and will help you in the process. They want the same thing as all of us – for all property in Pulaski County to be valued correctly.
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Pulaski County Property Tax Reassessments
PROPERTY TAX NOTICES IN PULASKI COUNTY.
Pulaski County has sent out notices regarding new property values in Pulaski County. The Pulaski County Board of Assessors Office has been re-evaluating property values over the last few years and they have finally completed this work. AS PER CURRENT STATE LAW, the county is required to mail out notices of what the new property values are. Also required by law, the notices include an ESTIMATED TAXES based on the new property value multiplied by LAST YEARS millage rates. PLEASE NOTE: The ACTUAL millage rates have not been set. Each governmental entity (County, School, and City) all have to set their individual millage rates BASED on the new valuations. Each governmental entity can ROLL BACK the millage rates if they so desire. The county, city, school all need a certain dollar amount (total budget) to operate. The budget is then divided by the new tax digest to determine their current millage rates. (overly simplified example).
Therefore, until these entities set their millage rates, your current TAX BILL AMOUNT is unknown. The ESTIMATED Total Tax on the notice that you received is therefore NOT accurate. However, state law REQUIRES it be reported this way. This is a bad law and it has been changed but the new law goes into effect NEXT YEAR.
So….. Some OVERLY simplified examples: If ALL properties doubled in value and ALL budgets were the same as last year, then each millage rate could be cut in half and everyone would pay exactly what they did last year. Now again, this is an over simplification. The different government bodies MAY increase their budgets so this is yet to be determined. There may be limiting factors (I think such may be for the school system) that their millage rates HAVE to be a certain millage or higher. There are lots of extenuating situations, but this gives you an idea.
ALSO, it is important how your property’s value changed IN RELATION TO ALL OTHER PROPERTIES. Again – extremely oversimplified example, but if your property increased in value by 10% but all other properties (on average) in the county increased by 30% then you should see a 20% REDUCTION in your tax bill compared to last year (assuming same budgets, etc.). In contrast, if your property’s value increased by 30% and ALL other properties (on average) increased on 10% then you will see a much larger increase than your neighbors. So it is all relevant.
The main point of this statement is: YOUR TAX BILL HAS NOT YET BEEN DETERMINED. Each government body must determine its millage rate BASED ON THE TOTAL TAX DIGEST valuation. So regardless of the statement in the mail that is ESTIMATING your tax doubling or tripling, NO ONE KNOWS YET. The county is simply having to follow the letter of the law. Don’t panic yet.
And when the final tax bills ARE sent out, please notice the breakdown. Don’t blame the city if the school system charges more or visa versa. Don’t blame the county if the city raises taxes and visa versa.
Also, PLEASE READ the pink shaded letter included with the notices. It basically says in legalize what I am trying to say here in a little easier to understand format.
I hope this helps to lesson the panic involved with these notices. Even though I am aware of what I have just said, my personal notice indicated a more than doubling. It is hard not to be upset. But again – THESE ESTIMATES are NOT concluded yet.
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Hawkinsville / Pulaski Animal Control
I am very embarrassed to admit that although I have been on the city council some 13 years, I had never visited our animal control shelter. A few weeks ago, our office cat went missing so my wife Vonnie went to the shelter to see if Butch Chafin (our animal control officer) had picked him up. He had not but Vonnie came home upset about the number of animals at our shelter. Butch does a good job but we (the city and county) have not given him the tools, resources, knowledge, or facilities to run that shelter in a first class manner. There are too many dogs for the number of cages, cats are in the same building, adoption procedures need to be improved, and some animals were reaching end of their allotted “time.”.
So this put Vonnie on a mission. And when Vonnie is on a mission, guess what? Shelly is on a mission. I visited the facility and then visited a great facility in Cochran in order to compare. We have LOTS of room for improvement. However, I want to let everyone know that improvements have already started – things work SLOWLY in government but great things ARE going to happen.
- Vonnie got a great home for one of the dogs and then posted pictures of the other dogs and that got re-posted on Facebook. Now several of the dogs have been adopted.
- Fencing is being donated to the city and our workers will install the fencing at the facility in order to give the dogs a place to run and provide a holding pen.
- We are taking a large portable building there and will convert it to the cat facility in order to separate the dogs and cats. (Update: We are adding to the existing structure rather than moving this portable building)
- We have pronounced our facility as a NO KILL shelter.
- One of my fellow commissioners has gone and visited the facility in Perry. We plan on having ALL commissioners visit our facility as a group in January.
- We plan on working with groups such as the one in Cochran to get plans and procedures in place to get all animals adopted and cared for.
- All animals will be posted on a city maintained animal control Facebook page to help adoptions and lost pets.
- We will find some training for our animal control officer to attend.
- I plan on putting in next year’s budget (July 2018 – June 2019) enough money to renovate/expand our facility and make it TOP NOTCH. We will improve the conditions.
Hawkinsville is a first class community and even our feline and canine citizens deserve first class care.
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City Water Issues – 2017
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Information on the Housing Market in Pulaski County
As a Real Estate Appraiser, I am keenly attuned to the upturns and downturns in the Real Estate Market. Especially as it affects Pulaski County. I thought I’d give a brief overview on the current and historical sales information for homes in our area. I found it interesting, I hope you do also:
The Median home values for homes in Pulaski County is $86,800. (National median home value is $185,800). The county is currently experiencing a 0.2% appreciation rate compared to the national average of 3.7%.
The Median age of homes for Pulaski county is 35 years (National average is 37 years).
53.3% of Pulaski Citizens own their own home compared to 56.3% nationally.
31% of our homes are rented with 15.7% of them vacant. The average rental cost is slightly over $600/month.
Our unemployment rate is 6.0% which is down from 9% in 2011. We have also gone from a -6% job growth rate to a +2.0% job grown rate in this same time period.
We sold about 49 homes last year in Pulaski County, with a median sales price of around $105,000. Homes tend to sale at about 95% of their listing price. Homes tend to sit on the market for about 45-80 days. 3 homes sold last month for an average price of $135,500 but they sat on the market for an average of 164 days.
*This data was compiled from Central Ga. MLS. Not all home sales go through this MLS. Many are owner sold directly without a Realtor. Not all Realtors report to Central Ga. MLS. Therefore, this information is incomplete, but it does serve as a trend analysis.
Shelly Berryhill 