Things I’m Thinking About — August 31, 2026
This newsletter is for the topics I am interested in. Maybe you will be also.

About
Shelly J. Berryhill is an honor graduate of Georgia Tech and the founder of Georgia Appraisal Services in Hawkinsville, Ga. For more than 20 years, he has served his community as a city commissioner while serving on numerous local and state boards including the Municipal Employee Benefit board and the Gas Authority of Georgia. He chairs the Pulaski Archway Executive Board. He was previously selected as Citizen of the Year by the local Chamber of Commerce.

He teaches Sunday School at Broad Street Baptist Church where he serves as a deacon. He and his wife Vonnie raised two children, Kristen and Kyle.

Spiritual
There is a Bible a lot of churches keep on the phone. The Passion Translation. YouVersion has it in an expanded review. Bethel has paused selling it. Some pastors have said they no longer have confidence in the scholarly foundation. I am not here to try the case. I teach Sunday school. If the book in your hand is in review, that is not a small thing. We do not need a pretty paraphrase. We need a text we can trust.

AI
The big AI shop, OpenAI, hit pause this month. Their own write-up said they cannot rule out critical cyber capability on a model they have not released, and on August 18 they said they already took a two-week pause on some training and the largest planned run is still on hold. Sam Altman said the capabilities were outstripping the pace of safety and alignment. I am not a lab guy. What I take from it is simple: the demo and the real thing are not the same, and even the people building it are saying slow down.

Appraisals
Freddie Mac’s 30-year went from 6.58 in late July to 6.69 the week of August 6, then eased to 6.65 the week of August 20. That is still a hair above last August. Daily quotes did not even follow the little dip. Mortgage News Daily had 6.77 on August 21. Demand already tends to soften when rates sit over 6.64, and we have been sitting there.

Metro Atlanta pending sales were down 32 percent from a year ago in the July GAMLS print. About 67 percent of the January-through-July solds had a concession, median $5,000. Buyers are choosing, not chasing. For Georgia, this is still not a floodgate. Shop the quote you are actually being offered. The house still has to support the number.

City government
Something just happened in New York that almost nobody is covering the right way, and it is not only a New York story. Big cities all over the country are watching it.

Amazon’s delivery network there is not one company payroll. Small contractors own the vans and hire the drivers. Those drivers can touch as many as 400 packages in a day, heat or ice. On August 10, Mayor Zohran Mamdani backed a city bill that would force Amazon to put those couriers on its own books, its own payroll. Amazon’s answer was blunt: the bill puts more than 5,000 of those jobs at risk, squeezes out the small delivery companies in the middle, and could push Amazon to move delivery operations outside the city. The very people the bill is supposedly going to help, it may put them out of a job.

I sit on a small-city commission, so I watch this differently than the cable-news fight. City Hall says it is protecting the driver. The company says it is protecting the small owner and the customer’s one-day box. Politicians like the sound bites but often don’t think through the ramifications of their proposals. This bill would cost jobs, delay deliveries, and drive up costs for consumers. If I was a delivery worker, I would much rather own my own company than go on Amazon’s payroll. Yeah, it may sound good, but this bill would hurt.

Productivity
AI was sold as less work. This month the talk is more work. Harvard Business Review called it botsitting — you hire a bot and then you get a second job managing the bot. A former OpenAI person told the BBC they were at 70 hours a week, and the sprints inside those labs have been reported as high as 90. Altman said he does not expect a four-hour workweek, and that we are all going to be much busier than we thought. That matches what I see. Most people still use it like a search engine. The ones who go further are not sitting on a beach. They are just carrying a bigger load.

Shellyism
I used to be in a band called “missing cat”. You’ve probably seen our poster.

— Shelly

New Subscriber Link: https://things-i-m-thinking-about.kit.com/8f3848f4e6

From the bookshelf
Through the Veil — How John’s Gospel Walks You Through the Temple
John’s Gospel is not a race. It is a walk. Lamb, altar, laver, table, menorah, incense, veil. Then the garden. A short book by Shelly Berryhill. Digital PDF, $7.95.
Buy it here: https://payhip.com/b/fnCam

Georgia Appraisal Services
Residential appraisals out of Hawkinsville, Georgia.
https://georgiaapp.com

This is the first weekly note. Five lanes.

Spiritual: I just finished four Sunday school lessons on the rest of God. I have been sitting with that. I turned those lessons into a book. The title is No Sweat. It may be on Amazon by now. Or you can start with The 40 Year Pattern.

AI: My newest AI obsession is Grok Bot. Easier than ChatGPT for me, and built for agents. One cleans Gmail. One builds this newsletter. One watches health records. A chief of staff watches them all.

Appraisals: Freddie Mac for the week of August 20: 6.65% on the 30-year, 5.95% on the 15-year. Second small dip. Still a hair above last August. For Georgia, this is not a floodgate. Shop the quote. The house still has to support the number.

City government: Pulaski County valuation notices went out, and a lot of people are upset about higher values. Value and tax are two different things. Millage sets the bill. Hawkinsville has not raised its millage rate since 1987. About 5% of our $10 million city budget comes from property taxes.

Productivity: Most people still use AI like a search engine. There is more. My last Amazon book went from manuscript to submission in about thirty minutes with an agent. Morning AI checks the calendar, finds local events and restaurants for Vonnie, blocks travel time, and even pre-conditions the Tesla.

New Subscriber Link: https://things-i-m-thinking-about.kit.com/8f3848f4e6

— Shelly

https://books.by/shellys-books

I just finished four Sunday school lessons on the rest of God. I have been sitting with that. i just turned these lessons into a book. The title is No Sweat. It may even be available on Amazon by now. Or you can purchase at https://books.by/shellys-books

This makes my 10th book. I did 3 “funnies” prior to Covid and then after Covid I got serious and have completed 6 spiritual books and one political book. I really enjoy writing. It is calming and fun.

New Subscriber Link: https://things-i-m-thinking-about.kit.com/8f3848f4e6

Books by Shelly

New Subscriber Link: https://things-i-m-thinking-about.kit.com/8f3848f4e6

Mortgage Rates — Week of August 14, 2026

Where rates stand

This week brought modest relief to the mortgage market. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.67%, down 2 basis points from last week’s 6.69%. The 15-year fixed came in at 5.96%, down 5 basis points from 6.01%. These small moves reflect a relatively stable week in broader bond markets, with inflation expectations and Fed policy commentary playing background roles.

What it means

For Georgia homebuyers, the takeaway is straightforward: rates remain elevated by historical standards, but they’re not moving dramatically in either direction. A $350,000 conforming loan at 6.67% translates to roughly $2,320 per month in principal and interest alone—before property taxes, homeowner’s insurance, and HOA fees. That’s a reality check for first-time buyers, but it’s also workable for those with solid 20% down payments and stable income.

The 15-year fixed at 5.96% is whispering to refinance candidates and buyers serious about building equity fast. If you’re planning to stay in Georgia long-term, the math on a 15-year often beats renting. The monthly payment is higher, but you own the house in half the time and pay roughly half the interest.

Sellers should know this too: current rates are putting downward pressure on buyer motivation in some price segments, especially above $450K where payment shock becomes real. Smart pricing and solid properties still move. Overpriced inventory sits. As an appraiser, I see this play out weekly in the comps.

Keep an eye on Fed commentary next week—any signals about rate adjustments can move the mortgage market faster than most people expect.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services

What the data shows

The latest Federal Housing Finance Agency house-price data points to a slower, more measured pace of price movement in Georgia. Its state-level index shows Georgia up 0.92% over the prior year and 0.11% over the latest quarter reported. Nationally, the National Association of REALTORS® reported that existing-home sales declined 2.4% in June from May, although sales were 2.8% higher than a year earlier.

Those figures do not describe every Georgia market the same way. A rural market, a small city, and a fast-growing metro neighborhood can react very differently to the same interest-rate or inventory headline.

What it means for Georgia

From an appraiser’s perspective, a slower statewide trend puts even more weight on the details of a local market. The relevant questions are not simply whether prices are “up” or “down.” We look at the most recent competitive sales, current listings, marketing time, concessions, property condition, and whether buyers are actually responding to the available inventory.

In a market with modest overall movement, a well-supported value conclusion depends on reading the immediate neighborhood correctly. A sale from across a county—or a headline about the national market—may be useful context, but it is not a substitute for comparable evidence that reflects the subject property’s real competition.

The takeaway: local data is doing the heavy lifting. Buyers, sellers, lenders, and property owners are best served when value opinions are grounded in the market that actually competes for that specific home.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services

Sources

• Federal Housing Finance Agency, House Price Index datasets, latest available Georgia figures.
• National Association of REALTORS®, June 2026 Existing-Home Sales report.

Mortgage Rates — Week of July 24, 2026

Where rates stand

This week’s national averages, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey:

Rates are climbing—the upward pressure is real, driven by elevated oil prices and a more cautious Federal Reserve stance.

What it means

For Georgia buyers: A 6.58% rate on a $300,000 purchase translates to approximately $1,850 per month in principal and interest. Compare that to where rates sat a year ago, and you’re looking at significant monthly differences. If you’ve been on the fence, the window is narrowing.

For sellers and appraisers: Rising rates compress buyer purchasing power. That directly impacts comparable sales and appraisal values in your market. Properties that sold easily at lower rates now face stiffer headwinds. Pricing strategy matters more than ever.

Geopolitical and economic backdrop: Oil prices have spiked due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, and bond yields are trending upward in response. The Fed remains hawkish, signaling more caution ahead. Rate forecasts lean toward continued upward pressure in the near term—though experts remain split on whether the increases will be steep or modest.

The bottom line: If you’re considering a refinance or a purchase, don’t wait for rates to drop. Lock in while you can, and have a solid strategy in place.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services

Georgia Home Values — June 2026

What the data shows

As of late June 2026, the 30-year mortgage rate has settled into the mid-6% range—currently 6.49%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a meaningful shift from a year ago, when rates were closer to 6.77%. Meanwhile, Georgia home prices show a more measured picture: median single-family prices hover between $318,000 and $334,000 depending on the source and market segment.

In the past 12 months, Georgia saw over 202,000 residential transactions—healthy volume, but not the frenzy of 2021–2022. Some sources report modest price appreciation (up 10–11% year-over-year in certain segments), while others show slight declines. This variance tells an important story.

What it means for Georgia

For appraisers, this market stage is cleaner to work in. When rates are falling and prices are stabilizing, comparable sales become more reliable anchors. You’re not chasing a market that’s moving 20% annually; instead, you’re interpreting real demand signals and actual value trends.

The stabilization also reflects a maturing buyer pool. Early-pandemic buyers who locked in 2.5% rates aren’t moving. New buyers at 6.5% have different purchase capacity. Sellers’ expectations are resetting. This creates more friction, fewer “off-market” deals, and a market where data actually reflects economic reality.

Georgia’s market also shows divergence between metro Atlanta (still robust) and rural/secondary markets (softer). An appraiser in Hawkinsville sees different comps than one in Buckhead. Broad state averages hide that regional story—which is exactly why appraisers focus on defined markets, not headlines.

The bottom line: rates are settling, prices are stabilizing, and the market is doing what healthy real estate markets do—find equilibrium. That’s good for appraisers who rely on clean, predictable comparables.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services

Mortgage Rates — Week of July 3, 2026

Where rates stand

This week brought solid momentum. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.43%, down 6 basis points from last week’s 6.49%. The 15-year fixed dropped to 5.79%, a 5 basis point decline from 5.84%. Both legs of the curve are easing — the first meaningful downward movement we’ve seen in a few weeks.

What it means

We’re now over 200 consecutive trading days below 6.5% — a range Georgia buyers have grown used to over the past 18 months. Rate relief like this week’s small but consistent gains matter in two ways: refinance viability and purchase power.

For refinancers, every basis point drop means recalculating. If you’ve been sitting on a 6.7% or 6.8% loan, this environment is worth a fresh look. The breakeven horizon has tightened.

For buyers, the conversation shifts from “will rates drop further?” to “will my rate drop further?” The reality: nobody times the market perfectly. Waiting for a phantom 6.1% when you can close at 6.4% is a margin-of-error game, and margins don’t pay your mortgage. If your rate works for your purchase timeline and your budget, lock it.

The spreads between 30-year and 15-year have stabilized around 64 basis points. That’s rational — if you have the cash flow for a 15-year payment, the equity acceleration is hard to ignore.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services

Georgia Appraisal Services | 15 Warren Street, Hawkinsville, GA 31036 | (478) 230-3538

Mortgage Rates — Week of June 19, 2026

Where rates stand

This week brought welcome relief for mortgage shoppers: rates dropped across the board as Treasury yields cooled despite the Federal Reserve holding its benchmark rate steady at its June meeting.

What it means

For Georgia buyers, this is the moment to act. A 5 basis point drop on a $300,000 mortgage translates to roughly $15/month in savings—modest on its own, but compounded over 360 payments, that’s real money. For refinance candidates who’ve been waiting, the math just shifted in your favor.

The broader story: mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, not the Fed funds rate directly. While the Fed held steady and signaled at most one rate hike later this year, Treasury markets have been pricing in a softer economic outlook. That’s driven rates down week-over-week. It’s a reminder that mortgage rates move on their own timeline—they don’t always follow Fed moves.

One cautionary note from the FOMC: the door remains open for one rate increase before year-end. Don’t assume rates stay here. If you’re refinancing or buying, the window for locking in rates under 6.5% is still open—but it won’t stay open forever.

— Shelly Berryhill, Georgia Appraisal Services